Climate and Energy Outlook of the Netherlands 2025

The probability of reaching the climate goal of 2030 is extremely small

It is extremely unlikely that the Netherlands will reach the target of 55% emission reductions in 2030. Including current implemented policy per January 1st (‘baseline projection’), we are on track towards 45-53% fewer greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 compared to 1990. Other calculable plans (‘scheduled policy measures’) add just 2 percentage points to this figure, amounting to 47% to just below 55% reduction. As such, the goal lies outside of the bandwith and the probability of reaching it is less than 5%.

Strong, structural policy is increasingly urgent 

There are fewer and fewer policy options that would realise a 55% emission reduction by 2030 without generating serious economic damages or garnering societal resistance. There are not many concrete plans to realise further emission reductions after this date, either. It is therefore very important to take more strong measures, which would support a structural transition towards a climate-neutral Netherlands in the long term.

Delay will make future challenges greater and more expensive 

It is also important to realise that the goal of 55% reduction in emissions by 2030 is in line with climate neutrality in 2050. If the goal for 2030 is not met, the challenge towards climate neutrality will only be greater.

Specific policy is needed for energy savings

It would be useful to develop more policy specifically aimed at energy savings. This not only contributes to a reduction in emissions and import dependencies, but can also lower energy bills for households and businesses. Policy is more often aimed at emission reductions rather than energy savings in particular. In the baseline projection, the probability is very small (circa 10%) that the European goal for decreasing final energy use is reached. 

The annual Climate and Energy Outlook of the Netherlands is mandated by the Dutch Climate Law and serves as one of the accountability instruments for Dutch climate and energy policy.